Supply today vs. required scale

While production capacity for SAF is growing quickly, it remains a very small share of global jet fuel supply. Industry estimates show production may double in a given year but still fall far short of the share needed to meet 2050 net-zero ambitions. For example, industry forecasts expected SAF to cover only about 0.7% of Aviation Alternative Fuel demand in 2025 despite a doubling of production capacity — a sign the industry is still in the early scaling phase. 

Cost premium and the “chicken-and-egg”

SAF production costs are higher than fossil jet fuel, often by 2–3x depending on pathway and feedstock. That cost gap persists because feedstock supplies are constrained (especially for HEFA which relies on waste fats/oils), capital costs for advanced plants are high, and demand-side offtakes remain uncertain in many markets. The sector faces a classic “chicken-and-egg” problem: producers need long-term offtake and policy support to justify investment, while airlines hesitate to sign long-term, high-price contracts until SAF becomes more affordable at scale. The World Economic Forum and other organizations have highlighted this affordability and scale challenge. 

Feedstock constraints and sustainability risks

Relying heavily on HEFA feedstocks can hit practical limits: global supplies of waste oils and fats are finite. Some announced projects based on feedstock assumptions have struggled or collapsed when the economics didn’t hold. Additionally, weaker sustainability controls risk indirect land-use change (ILUC), which can undermine the true emissions benefits of certain bio-based feedstocks. That is why policymakers and buyers increasingly prefer waste-based or e-SAF pathways that minimize ILUC risks.

Project and industry failures: cautionary signals

A number of SAF projects and companies have failed or been delayed, highlighting that not every announced project will reach commercial operation. Reuters' reporting has shown many early SAF project announcements have not been completed, and the industry still faces financial and operational hurdles that must be resolved to scale effectively. This underlines the importance of realistic project finance, rigorous due diligence, and policy certainty.